The SNP target set internally is to achieve a polling lead of +60% for 12 months, yet, as the table above shows, even given the benefit of all don’t knows, the" />
 Polling claims of secessionists are inflated, there is no consistent lead for leaving the UK

Polling claims of secessionists are inflated, there is no consistent lead for leaving the UK

by Steve Sayers
article from Tuesday 29, September, 2020

THERE HAS BEEN a lot of loose talk over the last few months about nationalist polling, but don’t forget, the headline results of over fifty per cent for leaving the UK exclude undecideds. 

Further, many polls being quoted now only use a subset of respondents and ask preliminary scene-setting questions that lead up to a soft final question on independence.  

The SNP target set internally is to achieve a polling lead of +60% for 12 months, yet, as the table above shows, even given the benefit of all don’t knows, the SNP is nowhere near. 

It’s evident that even with all the don’t knows awarded to LeaveUK the SNP hasn’t even approached its target, as the two tables below show – other than in four polls. Bear in mind polls have a +/-3% accuracy and don’t knows normally stick with the status quo as happened in 2014.  

The recent bluster from Nationalists and their politicians about a surge and having a consistent lead in the polls is absolute nonsense – they would have to hit 52 per cent excluding don’t knows consistently for months to claim real progress. The press have talked a few polls up for sensationalism. There is no real lead, as the tables below again show. 

The question is another issue – should Scotland be an independent country isn’t as clear cut as any new question would have to be – Yes or No to a “should” #Scexit question just won’t be allowed. A more likely scenario is shown in the graphic below. Nationalists have already conceded the electoral commission would be involved. 

The age split on the last poll (Survation) was very interesting; 220, 54 per cent of 411 16-34 year olds voted LeaveUK, yet only 200 of 569 +35 years old did, 35%. When you examine demographics (see NRS table below) Angus Robertson’s claim of matching 55,000 births matching 55,000 deaths was a lie. 

I don’t know about anyone else but I’d like to see the SNP get a 51 per cent vote (not seat) Holyrood majority in 2021 based on a primary/specific #Scexit manifesto and get a tight Section 30 and a fresh Edinburgh Agreement II that locked a third vote out for +35 years – let’s get rid of nationalism, #SNPOut 

So bring it on!

If however @GovUK & @UK GovScotland sticks to the script and says to Nicola Sturgeon, tough, you’ve had your once in a generation/lifetime opportunity (see examples below), then I can live with that. UK parliament is sovereign and the constitution is reserved. 

 

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