Market reaction shows No campaign was not bluffing

Market reaction shows No campaign was not bluffing

by Ewen Stewart
article from Wednesday 10, September, 2014

THIS IS A clear warning that the No side were not bluffing about the economic consequences. Squalls in England will be Force 10 in Scotland. In a most dangerous world, the break up of the UK seems extraordinary to global investors and governments. There is undoubtedly an economic and security price for this and it will be felt very acutely in Scotland.

Normura have indeed told clients to sell the UK. We have seen sterling fall from 1.71 to 1.61 over the last week, UK 10 year gilts move out from 2% to 2.52% – a massive move. Shares in Scottish companies RBS, Scottish power, Lloyds (HBOS), Babcock, Standard Life all off 3-6%.

Scotland is dancing to a seductive pied piper called Alex Salmond, who has beguiled the electorate to forget the economic reality. He says Scotland will get Sterling, it will join the EU on the same terms as the UK and may renege on debt while getting all the oil. This is delusional. He is taking a massive economic gamble with our future. If you get divorced, you don't get the inheritance. There is no bluff on currency.

Salmond's genius is to avoid difficult questions and move the goal posts. Scotland gains from being part of a much more diversified country, the fifth biggest on earth. Scotland alone is dependent on oil, financial services and public spending. Oil is volatile and declining, financial services is at most risk of walking down south and the public sector depends on taxes which aren't stable. 

Polls have shown many voters seem blind to economics. The answer now is love. We need to tell them why Scotland benefits from being both Scottish and British. Reality is in this most uncertain world Scotland benefits from being British. It has it's own distinct culture, law and control on spending but also benefits from being part of UK in terms of economy and security as well as being outward looking. The various No campaigns must stay united as Salmond will try and divide and rule. Keep it positive and disarm Salmond's extraordinary brass neck and frankly lies.


For a précis of the white paper "Much Cost, Little Benefit" in PDF format, please click here and for the full version of the economic report in PDF format, please click here

To watch a video of Ewen Stewart's MSP briefing at Holyrood, please click on this link:

To watch Ewen Stewart's video on taxation and public spending, please click here:

To watch Ewen Stewart's video on how much independence would cost, please click here:



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User Comments

I don't think it's so much that voters don't care about economics or have been duped by the "evil genius" to not ask questions but that the impact of being told we're all screwed is significantly less because that's essentially been the message for two years without much of a narrative to accompany talk about risks which paints an emotional / heart felt vision for Scotland's future as part of the UK

Posted on Wednesday 10, September, 2014 by Michael Rossi