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Can Tavish steer his party to a new Valhalla?
Scotland always has been a traditional stronghold of Liberalism. Be it the election of the many mainstream Liberal MPs that helped form nineteenth century governments, the regular return of ‘radical’ Liberals that wanted faster, deeper change than was being offered by Gladstone et al, or the Liberal Party of Joe Grimond that kept the party going after its demise in the twenties and thirties – Scotland could be relied upon to keep the Liberal torch burning.
Having recovered in the latter part of the twentieth century by mopping up a number of traditional Tory rural seats (the Borders, Fife, Aberdeenshire, the Highlands) the by now renamed Scottish Liberal Democratic Party was well placed to benefit from the new Scottish Parliament it had always promised – winning most of its seats first past the post.
Entering into a formal coalition with Labour (with whom they often appeared to the left of) the Lib Dems had a very successful first eight years in power – delivering real achievements that could be quantified and communicated (free personal care, graduate endowment/abolition of tuition fees and STV for local government). The weakness was that Lib Dem MSPs were essentially ticking-off an old shopping list written in the eighties and nineties and had, by 2007, run out of fresh ideas that could work with Labour – other than simply spending more money. On the Holyrood stage they always were personality lite – now they were policy lite too.
Furthermore, it did not do enough to distance itself from a clearly unpopular Labour party – and so was tarred with the same brush.
Nicol Stephen had made a brave start to his leadership by outflanking, initially, Jack McConnell, the SNP and Tories with an appeal for cutting business rates that was eventually delivered. The rising tide of Salmondism had not been foreseen, however, and Nicol Stephen showed eventually that he was not such a strong swimmer after all. Stephen was viewed as not only being too negative in dealing with the SNP but also having too much of a personal distaste for Alex Salmond – a surprising outcome for someone previously thought of as being a soft touch.
The new leader, Tavish Scott, used his first major speech to call on an emergency 2p cut using the Tartan Tax variation – arguing that in these difficult times that hard working families needed the help of a £330 cut in income tax. (The suggestion appears to be that it would be a one-off rebate rather than cut in the annual baseline – details are still emerging). It will require a £800 million cut in the Scottish Government’s budget – easier said than done when you are in opposition.
Predictably, the other parties gave a Pavlovian response dismissing the idea out of hand and asking where the funding would come from. Annabel Goldie’s patronising and mocking response was especially sad – forgoing an opportunity to build a low tax consensus and leaving the Liberal Democrats as the only tax cutting party at Holyrood (the Tory offer to cut Council Tax – which they cannot deliver - is a cruel deception.)
Meanwhile Nick Clegg and his finance spokesman, Vince Cable, has pledged to identify £20 billion in savings across Whitehall – something Cameron and Osborne have so far shown a complete unwillingness to talk about. The bounty would be used to fund a 4p reduction in the basic tax rate - which put together with Tavish’s proposal offers a staggering 6p cut from 21p to 15p.
Not content with the tax cutting policy the Liberal Democrats are also demonstrating that they can still be relevant by offering to change the face of local government still further through supporting the SNP government’s proposals for a local income tax. By insisting that variation of LIT tax rates by councils be written included on the face of the SNP’s bill and conceding that such local variance could be phased in later the two parties might come together on that one issue. Lib Dems are also showing a degree of creativeness and flexibility, suggesting, for instance, tax thresholds could allow all students up to £14,000 before tax (although why students should be treated differently from low-income earners isn’t explained.) Now all they have to do is resolve the financial shortfall that LIT creates and its high cost of collection – but at least life-changing Lib Dem policy is again a genuine prospect.
The Lib Dems have to be willing to cut deals with the SNP – while also showing that they can defeat SNP schemes on a regular basis. Nor should they rule out a formal coalition. Salmond doesn’t need it just now – but if he were to be defeated on a weekly basis he might begin to see it as an advantage. Supplanting the Tories as the providers of Salmond’s oxygen supply could bring them some significant publicity benefits of their own – and they have shown themselves far more adept at utilizing them than Tory MSPs.
Tavish Scott has shown quickly a willingness to take account of the prevailing winds and lead boldly from the front. As well as some internal overhauls, he has identified his party’s need to be as hungry in opposition as it was complacent in office. Given the publics’ perception of being ‘more Scottish than British’ and the distinctive Liberal tradition in Scotland of Home Rule – it would be wise to play up and it’s sentiments and return to those roots. He could also examine how such commitment to greater devolution fits neatly with greater personal responsibility – and thus a smaller, enabling state – rather than Scotland’s Leviathan that his party helped grow.
Unfortunately the Scottish Liberal Democrats have shown little willingness to discuss and debate new policy – to consider how the political terrain has changed – the centre now being further to the right than most of its activist base would like. The absence of any Scottish Champion of the ’Orange Book’ of cutting taxes and deregulating being a prime example of how it is caught in the Old Labour Scottish straightjacket.
The SNP has made much of being able to attract businesses and right of centre thinkers – all of whom could have had a natural home in the Liberal Democrats by offering low tax, low regulation, home rule, personal responsibility policies whilst staying within the Union. By failing to appeal to that particular Liberal constituency the Scottish Liberal Democrats left them with only one place to go.
With a new leader at the helm of the Longboat it’s still not too late to change their course.
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